Below are my “answers” to the poll questions presented in this the first article in the ongoing series “Reconnecting Environmental Science.”  The word “answer” is used apprehensively as many of the questions do not yet have definitive answers and, in my opinion, some never will.

Q2 - The best scientific research estimates the globe will warm ____ degrees Celsius within the next 100 years.

The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) represents the state-of-the-art agency in the field of climate change modeling and prediction.  Their latest model released in 2001 concluded that warming could range from 1.4 to 5.8 degrees C within the next 100 years [1, p13]. 

At first glance this seems like a very broad range and one might question why the leading agency could not come up with a more definite answer.  This broad range becomes more understandable when one begins to understand the vast number of unique characteristics that effect climate change. 

The IPCC develops it predictions by utilizing a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis tools that consider the complex interactions between climate, environmental, economic, political and technological processes [2, p3].  The results of this analysis can be seen in Figure 1.  The uncertainty of climate change prediction will continue to improve as the understanding of how these complex characteristics interact improves.  While improvement is expected, it should be understood that definite predictions may never be possible, the IPCC themselves admit that making accurate long-term predictions about climate is virtually impossible [4, p2].

Figure 1 – Climate Change predictions resulting from the latest IPCC analysis. [1, p14]

Q3 - The best scientific estimates show that in the 20th century seas levels have risen by approximately how many centimeters?

Rising sea levels is one of the observable global average changes that can be attributed to global warming over the past century.  Others include (along with their approximate magnitudes):

• Sea levels have increased (~10cm)
• Surface temperatures have increased (~0.6ºC)
• Snow and ice cover have decreased (~10%)

Additionally, it is important to note that several variables related to climate change have remained the same:

• There has been little change in the frequency and intensity of tropical storms
• There has been no change in frequencies of tornados, thunder days or hail storms

[1, p2-4]

Q4 - The global warming trend over the past 50 years can be attributed mainly to human activity:

Most scientists agree that the planet has experienced a warming trend over the past 50 years but the jury is still out as to why this warming has occurred.  Those who believe the warming trend is mainly human induced will point to figure 2 (a graph constructed by analyzing tree ring samples in the northern hemisphere) and ask how one can deny the industrial revolutions effect on climate change.

Figure 2: 1000 year temperature reconstruct using tree ring data from the northern hemisphere. [1, p3]

Scientists who believe the current warming trend to be a natural phenomenon might point to Figure 2 (a graph constructed by analyzing ice-core samples and tree-ring data) and while questioning how the present interest in Human Induced Global Warming can discard all the well-documented research showing the planet coming out of the “little ice age.”

Figure 2: 1000-year temperature reconstruct using tree-ring and ice-core samples [5]

Q5 - The present level of understanding of global climate change is great enough to support mitigations actions (such as Kyoto):

With all that is not known about climate change it can be difficult for many to justify the billions of dollars that have been spent on mitigation efforts such as the Kyoto Accord.  I think it is important to focus on what we do know: increased emissions of Green House Gases from human activity have a warming affect on the climate [1, p7]. 

While we don’t know the magnitude of this affect I do think it is worthwhile to take moderately precautious measures to mitigate it by setting a target of lowering CO2 emissions 6% below 1990 levels (the Kyoto Accord).  It is unfortunate that it costs billions of dollars to implement moderately precautionary measures, but that is the result of the complex socio-political structure of our world and that is not about to change anytime soon.

Q6 - Keeping in mind other world issues (such as starvation and extreme poverty), would you consider Global Warming to be one of the world’s most important issues:

With the coming of the new millennium, the United Nations (UN) set eight goals for the planet listed below in order of importance (according to the UN):

1. Eradicate Extreme Poverty and Hunger
2. Achieve Universal Primary Education
3. Promote Gender Equity Empower Women
4. Reduce Child mortality
5. Improve Maternal Health
6. Combat HIV/AIDS, Malaria and other Diseases
7. Ensure Environmental Sustainability
8. Develop a Global Partnership for Development

In my opinion the issue of Global Warming would fall into number seven on the list and I don’t see how anyone could move any of the six preceding goals behind it.  Those who would disagree with me include former United States’ President Bill Clinton stating:

“Global Warming is one of two or three major issues facing the world in the next 30 years” [2000, Interview with Leonardo Dicaprio];

as well as The World Watch Institute:

“Stabilizing the climate along with stabilizing population growth are the two overriding

issues facing our global civilization as the new century begins” [2000, WI]

Activists who consider global warming to be a top priority for our planet argue that global warming will have an affect on achieving all eight of the UN Millennium Goals.  To this I would argue that it would be far more efficient and effective to directly provide people with food, education and healthcare to reach these goals.

To Conclude
Through this response I hope I have managed to convey that there is a great amount of uncertainty still surrounding the science and politics of climate change.  I also hope I have provided enough information to stimulate thought and allowed you to begin to form your own opinion on climate change.

References
1. IPCC, “Summary for Policy Makers, A Report of Working Group 1 of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change”. 2001

2. IPCC, “Summary for Policy Makers Climate Change 2001: Mitigation”. 2001

3. http://www.ec.gc.ca/climate/overview_science-e.html, Site accessed on May 12, 2005

4. IPCC, “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios”. 2001

5. David R. Legates, “Revisiting 1000 Years of Climate History”, National Center for Policy Analysis. 2003